Envisioning a Computationally Enhanced Mathematics Curriculum in Hong Kong’s Primary & Secondary Schools
Magic box with 5050
Lesson Overview
This course builds on the concept and mechanism of “random number”, provide students with the opportunity to experience reallife phenomena related to probability. Especially, how the experimental probability could be different from our expectation, what is meant by independent events, and how to use probability to build a fair game system.
Learning Objectives

Use “pick random number [XX  XX]” to simulate probability conditions.

Use random number and conditional codes to simulate the reallife event.

Draw conclusions and inference from the results of large number trials.

Extend to more conditions.
Task Description and Resources
Task 1: 50% + 100, 50%  100
Purpose: Get students familiar with the drawing paradigm of “scan the whole stage”.
Objective: To observe how the money going to change following this rule for several trials and large number of trials.
Suggested Steps:

Use “pick random number [XX  XX]” to simulate the random event. Set variables to store a single event. Determine the conditions that can fulfil the situation. For example, we can set take random number [1  2], or [1  100], the condition could be [= 1] and [= 2], or [< 51] and [> 50], respectively. Use list to store the results after a trial. Run multiple number of trials to observe the results.

Ask students to reflect on the results. The sample guiding questions are: (1) What results do you expect? Does the computer simulation close to your expectation? And why? (2) Image that after 1000 trials, we got the results of 5000. Now I run another 1000 trials, what would you expect?
Reference Code:
Task 2: 50% * 2, 50% / 2
Objective: To observe how the money going to change following this rule for several trials and large number of trials. Think about the differences between the rules in Task 1.
Suggested Steps:

After simulation, reflect on the results: What are the differences between Task 1 and Task 2, and why? What can we infer from the results?
Reference Code:
Task 3: 30% * 2, 40% / 2, 30% unchanged. Or other conditions
Purpose: To observe how the money going to change following this rule for several trials and large number of trials. Change the condition to design a playable game.
Suggested Steps:

The key is to choose the value of [pick random number] to simulate different probability situations.
Reference Code:
Link to Scratch: https://scratch.mit.edu/projects/1000375798/
Summary
This course guides students to experience experimental probability by using random numbers to simulate reallife probability phenomena. Through this experience, students will feel the differences between concepts like “theoretical probability”, “expected value”, “experimental probability” and “instance trial”. The reallife and unpredictable situation could be engaging for students and create conflict to help the knowledge construction.
Acknowledgement
The author would like to thank Zhi Hao CUI for designing this lesson and appreciate all the anonymous teachers and students who participated in this research.